ZERO-HEDGE.COM Reporters Claim To Have Proof China Lying About Virus Death Toll As Total Cases Near 8,000
Summary:
Death toll climbs to 170, 7,771 cases confirmed in China, 7,811 international; 170 cured
Reporter claims local media has evidence Beijing lying about death toll
British Airways cancels flights to China
Trump says he spoke with Xi over the phone
Angry mobs spotted in Sichuan
CDC sending representatives to China
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Update (1850ET): China's NHC just released another update. Adding more than 600 to the total confirmed cases, China is now admitting to 7,771 cases across the country. The death toll has climbed to 170 (which includes one death outside China) and 170 patients have been cured - the same number as the dead. Some 31 cases were labeled "severe" and nearly 90,000 people have been "tracked" (interrogated about contacts and symptoms). Nearly 82,000 are under observation (aka quarantine).
Update (1650ET): Several epidemiologists have suggested that many of the deaths caused by the coronavirus that surfaced in Wuhan last month have probably 'slipped through the cracks' - either having been misdiagnosed or deliberately attributed to something else. Many suspect that Beijing is concealing the true extent of the outbreak. And now, one reporter claims that a Chinese media organization has found proof.
The East Asia Correspondent for DW cited reports in a tweet claiming that health officials have been secretly moving some bodies directly from the hospital to the crematorium.
#China is hiding is the number of death caused by the virus. Credible Chinese media outlet @initiumnews interviewed people working at local cremation centers, confirming that many dead bodies were sent directly from the hospitals to the cremation centers...
without properly identifying these patients, which means there are patients who died from the virus but not adding to the official record. That shows the current death toll of 133 that we are seeing is way too low.
The latest clinical report on 2019-nCoV: 99 patients from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Important: a key group of patients progress rapidly to ARDS, septic shock, and multiple organ failure. 23% ITU admission, 17% ARDS, 11% mortality.
Coronavirus Geometric Progression Suggests 100,000 Infections In A Week
The following charts were constructed from the daily update from the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China.
The blue line in the chart below shows the actual number of reported coronavirus cases stands at 4,515 as of January 27.
The orange line is a simple progression that assumes a 53% increase in the cases every day. Or, one person infects 2 to 2.5 people. So it is a simple multiplier, nothing more. This is known as R0 (R-Naught), or the infection rate. Note the chart is a log scale.
The reported number of infections perfectly track this simple multiplier. This is how viral inflections growth, along a geometric path.
If this track is not altered, the number of reported cases will top 16,000 by Friday.
To many, such a geometric progression is alarming (see the tweet immediately above).
As the orange line shows, this type of growth rate would suggest 80,000+ infections next Monday and 138 million by February 20.
Is this growth rate possible? Over the near-term yes.
The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China offers another statistic, the number of people in quarantine suspected of having the coronavirus. As of January 27, over 44,000 are quarantined. Many of these people will unfortunately be reported as infected.
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